Thursday, November 1, 2018

Mid Term Election info for November 2018.

Mid term election results since 1934;

Only three (3) mid term elections since 1934 have resulted in a gain (in Congress) for the president's party.  In 1934 F.D. Roosevelt 's Democratic Party gained nine (9) seats in the House and nine (9) in the Senate.  In 1998 Bill Clinton's Democratic Party gained five (5) seats in the House and no gain or loss in the Senate.  In 2002 G.W. Bush's Republican Party gained eight (8) seats in the House and two (2) in the Senate.

On average the incumbent's party loses 30 seats in the House and four (4) in the Senate.  The largest loses were in 1938 (FDR) the Democratic Party out a total of 77 seats and in 2010 (Obama) the Democratic Party lost 69 seats.

On Nov 1st of 2010 President Obama's approval rating was 45 %.
Today President Trump's approval rating is between 41 to 47 % (four different polls)

Point: It will be interesting to see what this mid term election will be.

Voter Disenfranchisement.

In 2016 5.85 million Americans could not vote due to a felony conviction.  In 1960 that number was 1.7 million people, had declined to 1.1 million in the late 70's and has risen steadily since.  The states with the highest % of felony disenfranchisement are Florida with 10.4 %, Mississippi 8.3 %, Kentucky 7.4 %, Virginia, Tennessee, Wyoming, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia (all from 7.3 too 3.8 %)  Ten (10) states impose life time ban on voting for a felony conviction, while two (2) states allow prison inmates to vote.  Only 3 other countries ban life time voting by former felons (Armenia, Belgium and Chile).

In one case, Florida, a felony is "Grand Theft" or the unlawful taking of property worth $ 300 (this area needs more research; what are felonies in each of the states listed above).

Prior to 2013 the Federal Government under the Voting Rights Act of 1965 required some states with a history of denial of voting rights, to get pre-approval from the Federal government to make any changes in their election laws.  In 2013 the Supreme Court (in the case of Shelby v. Holder) struck that provision out of the VRA.  Since that time 14 states have enacted restrictions on voting.  Most of these required photo ID's, purging names from voting lists, reducing the time period for early voting. Those 9 states covered by the Shelby ruling are Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

Point: Even if a few cases can be found of non-citizens voting, how many millions of American Citizens will be denied their basic constitutional right necessary for any country to call itself a democracy?

(Source: Brennen Center for Justice at NYU 2/9/17 and ProCon.org 11/7/12)